01
Don't chase breakouts
If a stock has already run hard, wait for the first pullback to confirm support before entering.
02
Confirm the trend before sizing up
Price above the 50-day MA is a minimum condition for a full-size position. Below it, half size or wait.
03
Check RSI before entering
Avoid buying when RSI is above 70 on the daily. Overbought entries reduce your margin for error.
04
Volume confirms conviction
Only enter on a breakout if volume is meaningfully above average. Low-volume breakouts are traps.
05
Know your catalyst
Don't buy into a stock without understanding why it should move. Macro theme, earnings, re-rating, or technical setup — pick one.
06
Wait for the close
For volatile or speculative names, don't buy intraday spikes. Let the candle close and confirm direction.
07
Never buy on weekends
Markets are closed and weekend news is unpriced. Use weekends to research and plan, not execute. If you feel the urge to buy on a Sunday, write it down and set a price alert instead. Any orders queued for Monday open should use a limit order to protect against gappy opens.
08
Always run a second-opinion check with Claude before entering
Especially if the idea came from YouTube, social media, or an external tip. Ask: What's the bull and bear case? Is this a good entry point technically? What macro or sector risks could work against this?
01
Distinguish a dip from a breakdown
A dip is a pullback within an uptrend. A breakdown is a structural move lower. Only buy dips, not falling knives.
02
50-day MA is the first dip-buy zone
For quality names with strong fundamentals, a test of the 50-day MA in an uptrend is often the ideal entry.
03
Require a reason for the dip
Sector rotation and general market weakness = potential buy. Earnings miss, guidance withdrawal, or fundamental deterioration = stay out.
04
Use ATR to size your entry zone
If a stock has a high ATR, don't buy the first day of a pullback. Give it 1–2 ATR of room to find a base.
05
Set a price alert, not an order
For high-volatility names, place a price alert at your target level and manually assess before buying. Avoids getting filled on a gap-down flush.
06
Don't dip-buy a stock you don't already understand
Research happens before the dip, not during it.
01
Set your stop before you enter
Know your max loss per trade before you hit buy. No entry without a defined stop level.
02
Prefer trailing stop-limits over hard stops
Use mental stops with price alerts for volatile names to avoid stop-outs from intraday noise.
03
Lock in partial gains on strong runs
If a position is up 20–40%, consider trimming 30–50% to protect capital while staying in for more upside.
04
Don't let a winner turn into a loser
Once a stock is up meaningfully, move your stop to at least breakeven.
05
Fundamental deterioration = immediate exit review
If the thesis changes (guidance withdrawal, seismic event, management change), don't wait for the stop. Reassess same day.
06
Time stop
If a stock isn't moving after 4–6 weeks, review whether capital is better deployed elsewhere.
01
Wait 24 hours before acting on any tip
Content creators often already hold the position — rushing in makes you their exit liquidity.
02
Check when the video was published
If the stock is already up 20%+ from where it was discussed, the opportunity has likely passed.
03
Let Claude stress-test the thesis first
Bring the idea here before buying. A 5-minute check-in could save you from a bad entry or a stock that's already priced in the news.
01
Always know the macro backdrop before entering any trade
Interest rate expectations, inflation data, and central bank tone (RBA, Fed) directly affect valuations — especially growth and resource stocks.
02
Geopolitical events move commodities fast
Conflicts, trade disputes, and sanctions can spike or crash oil, copper, zinc, uranium, and rare earths overnight. Scan before entering resource stocks.
03
US politics affects your ASX holdings
Tariff policy, defence spending, energy policy, and USD strength all flow through to Australian markets.
04
China is a key variable for most ASX resources
Iron ore, copper, lithium, and rare earths are all heavily China-demand driven. Any major Chinese economic data, stimulus, or trade policy shift should be on your radar.
05
Ask Claude for a macro pulse check before any significant buy
Especially after a weekend or around major data release weeks. A quick "anything macro I should know before buying X?" takes two minutes and could save a bad entry.
06
Risk-off environments are not the time to be a hero
If markets are in a clearly risk-off mode (rising VIX, falling futures, dollar strengthening), reduce urgency on any new entries. Wait for conditions to stabilise.
SUN
Sunday evening macro check-in
Before the ASX opens Monday, review weekend news with Claude. Scan: US Friday close, central bank commentary, commodity price shifts, geopolitical developments.
MON
Don't trade the Monday open blind
If there was significant weekend news, wait for the first 30–60 minutes of ASX trade to see how the market digests it before entering or adding.
MON
Check US futures before ASX open
If S&P futures are down 1%+, that's a risk-off signal. Reconsider any planned buys for that session unless they're dip-buy setups.
WED
Mid-week macro pulse
Wednesday is a good mid-week gut check, especially in weeks with US data releases. Has the week's narrative shifted from what you expected Sunday?
FRI
End-of-week review
Note any positions that had a bad week without a clear catalyst. Decide before the weekend whether you're comfortable holding over two days of no liquidity.
Sunday Check-in — What to Ask Claude
- Scheduled macro events this week — Fed speakers, CPI, jobs data, RBA decisions
- Weekend news that affects my sectors — commodities, geopolitics, policy shifts
- ASX-specific catalysts — earnings, index rebalances, resource sector news
Standing Sunday Prompt
"Sunday check-in — what's the macro setup heading into this week, and anything I should know before the ASX opens Monday?"
Stage 1 — Target Zone
Accumulation
Flat, low-volume base. Institutions quietly building positions. Price going sideways for weeks or months. No retail awareness yet.
Stage 2 — Target Zone
Early Markup
Price breaking above the base on rising volume. Trend beginning to establish. Still below analyst radar and social media attention.
Stage 3 — Avoid Entry
Distribution
Stock on YouTube, trending on X. Price extended, volatility high. Institutions distributing to retail. This is where most tips come from.
Stage 4 — Avoid Entry
Decline
Downtrend established. Lower highs, lower lows. Retail still holding hoping for recovery. Avoid averaging down here.
01
Insider buying is the strongest early signal
When a CEO, CFO, or director buys meaningful amounts of their own stock — not options, actual shares — that's the most reliable Stage 1 signal available. Check OpenInsider every Friday. Look for cluster buying (multiple insiders buying at the same time) as an even stronger confirmation.
02
Institutional accumulation via 13F filings
When a respected fund takes a new position, that's Stage 1 by definition — they got in before you heard about it. Check WhaleWisdom every Saturday for new positions from funds you track. A stock appearing in multiple new 13F filings in the same quarter is a strong accumulation signal.
03
Watch for unusual volume before any news
A stock trading 3–5x its average daily volume with no news is often informed accumulation. This is one of the cleanest Stage 1 signals. Set up a TradingView screener for ASX and US stocks showing unusual volume spikes on otherwise quiet days.
04
Follow sector rotation before it becomes obvious
Money rotates into sectors in a predictable sequence. When a macro theme starts attracting institutional money (e.g. uranium in 2020, AI in 2022), the first movers within that sector are Stage 1 plays. Ask Claude: "Which sectors are seeing early institutional rotation right now?"
05
Look for Stage 1 base patterns on TradingView
A Stage 1 base looks like: flat price action for 6+ weeks, volume drying up (contracting), price hugging the 200-day MA from above, and RSI resetting toward 40–50. This is the coiling spring before the move. Screen for these weekly.
06
Track themes before the stocks — not the other way around
Identify the macro theme first (e.g. data centre infrastructure, rare earths, hypersonic defence), then find the undiscovered picks-and-shovels plays within it. Stocks that fit a coming theme but haven't been discovered yet are the best Stage 1 opportunities.
07
Small cap with large cap thesis — the sweet spot
The best Stage 1 opportunities are often small or micro-cap companies with exposure to a mega-cap theme (AI, defence, critical minerals). They fly under the radar because fund managers can't buy them at scale — but retail can. These are your asymmetric opportunities.
08
Use Claude as a weekly early-stage screener
Each week, ask: "What small or mid-cap stocks in my themes are showing early institutional interest or insider buying this week?" This systematic prompt builds an early pipeline of ideas before they hit mainstream awareness.
Your Weekly Early-Stage Toolkit
- Friday — OpenInsider: Scan for insider buys in your theme sectors. Look for cluster buying and large dollar amounts.
- Saturday — WhaleWisdom: New 13F positions from funds you track. First appearances = Stage 1 signal.
- Weekend — TradingView screener: Unusual volume + flat base + low RSI in your watchlist sectors.
- Sunday — Claude early-stage prompt: "What's showing early institutional interest in quantum / uranium / defence / critical minerals this week?"
Disclaimer
This document is a personal reference framework and is intended for private use only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past frameworks do not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.